Signal Cities: Rockford, Peoria, and Carbondale Identified as Illinois’ Economic Bellwether Towns.

• 3,021 business leaders surveyed on which Illinois cities feel economic shifts first.
• Rockford considered #1 in the state.
• Interactive map showing each state’s ‘signal city’. 

Just as swing states help predict political outcomes, certain U.S. towns act as early warning systems for the economy. These “signal cities” are so attuned to local shifts in hiring, consumer behavior, or supply chains that their tremors often ripple across the entire state.

To uncover which towns hold this predictive power, MarketBeat, a financial media company, surveyed 3,021 business leaders, asking: where does change happen first? The result is a map of communities that economists might want to keep a closer eye on – not for what’s already happened, but for what’s coming next.

Business leaders in Illinois said these are the state’s top ‘signal cities’:

#1 Rockford
Rockford’s blend of tool-and-die shops, logistics firms, and healthcare providers makes it a strong bellwether for working-class Illinois. When job postings dry up or foot traffic in service businesses slows, Rockford usually reflects growing economic caution – especially in smaller cities still dependent on legacy industries.

#2 Peoria
Peoria is long tied to Caterpillar and the broader industrial economy. It offers a direct look at how manufacturing and skilled trades are faring. When factory hours decline or demand for heavy equipment drops, Peoria usually feels it early. Because many downstate communities depend on similar sectors, shifts in Peoria are often the opening act of wider economic slowdowns across central Illinois.

#3 Carbondale
Anchored by Southern Illinois University, Carbondale reflects the economic interplay between higher education and local communities. Recent enrollment growth at SIU indicates renewed vitality, but the town remains sensitive to shifts in education funding and student-driven spending trends that often echo across other rural college towns in the Midwest.

What Locals Really Notice First
While economists and analysts look at charts, locals often rely on gut instinct – and visible shifts in their own communities. According to the survey, 61% of respondents said they trust their local leaders or business owners to recognize the early warning signs of a downturn. The remaining 39% expressed doubt, suggesting that trust in economic foresight is far from universal.

When asked what they’d cut first if money got tight, Illinoisans were surprisingly aligned:

• 40% said they’d reduce spending on eating out and entertainment.
• 27% would hold off on major purchases like a car or new appliances.
• 22% would put off travel or vacation plans.
• 12% would pull back on donations or memberships.

So, what actually triggers alarm bells for people?

Nearly half of all respondents – 46% – said the clearest red flag is when a major local employer starts laying off staff. That was followed by local businesses cutting hours or closing (30%), while just 9% cited rising home listings or rent drops. Only 8% paid close attention to changing patterns in community events or public transit use – the subtler signs that economists often track.

When it comes to reading the local economic mood, most respondents said they’re watching the public, not the policymakers:

• 43% believe consumer behavior (shopping habits, restaurant traffic, etc.) is the best predictor.
• 27% point to major employers or factories.
• 23% put their faith in local government or public services.
• Just 7% look to real estate trends.

And finally, how do people personally notice the first signs of economic weakness in their area?

• 34% observe storefronts closing or turning over more frequently.
• 32% spot fewer job openings or hiring freezes.
• 20% notice less traffic in retail stores and restaurants.
• 16% pick up on housing prices stalling or dropping.

Interactive map showing each state’s ‘signal city’ (click on ’embed’ to host on your site)

“As we move through an unpredictable economic landscape, these signal cities offer something rare: real-time glimpses into how economic shifts take root and ripple,” says Matt Paulson, founder of MarketBeat.

“They’re not just towns on a map – they’re the places where new trends, pressures, and recoveries start to show themselves first. For anyone watching what’s next, this is where to look.”